Physics and Astronomy Colloquium
A Route to Armageddon:Technical Shortfalls in Russia's Nuclear Early Warning Systems
Presented by Theodore A Postol, Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology, and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
This talk will describe the technical capabilities and limitations of the existing ground and space-based nuclear attack warning systems that could greatly complicate the ability of both Russian and US leaders to control the escalating use of nuclear weapons if nuclear weapons are used in the Russo-Ukrainian war.In particular, significant shortfalls in the capabilities Russian space-based sensors could cause Russian or US leaders in a crisis to inadvertently take actions that would then precipitate a rapid action and reaction cycle leading to catastrophic escalation of nuclear weapons use. An example of how such an inadvertent escalation could occur was a false alert of Russian nuclear forces in February 1995. At the time, US intelligence was completely unaware of the very serious shortfalls in Russia's space-based early warning systems. If the Russo Ukrainian war was in progress during this false alert, it could well have produced a rapid inadvertent escalation of the use of nuclear weapons by either or both side. Some of the numerous important limitations of these US and Russian early warning systems will be described in order to build a better understanding of their limitations during a real-world crisis.
3:30 pm, Friday, October 21, 2022
PAIS-1100, PAIS
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A schedule of talks within the Department of Physics and Astronomy is available on the P&A web site at http://physics.unm.edu/pandaweb/events/index.php